Clean Air Act Advisory Committee

Permits/New Source Review/Air Toxics Subcommittee

Utility MACT Working Group

Summary of Additional IPM Analysis 05/30/02

At the Working Group (of the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee's [CAAAC] Permits/New Source Review/Air Toxics Subcommittee) meeting held on May 13, 2002, EPA presented initial Integrated Planning Model (IPM) results on the four MACT cases: Case I - no subcategorization, Case II and III - subcategorization by fuel type, and Case IV - subcategorization by boiler type. EPA examined two levels of control, a medium and low level, which are described in the May 13, 2002 meeting presentation. Note that the levels of control presented do not represent any Working Group or Agency conclusions on appropriate levels of control. The levels of control presented are hypothetical levels for the purpose of analyzing subcategorization options.

EPA is presenting additional analyses on these four cases. These analyses include model projections at a regional level for coal and natural gas generation, capacity retrofits, and coal production.

The first attached table provides percent change from basecase projections in 2010 of coal and oil/natural gas generation at a nationwide and regional level for the four MACT cases examined. The nationwide analysis was presented in graphical format at the May 13th meeting. Note that the change is from basecase projections, which project an increase in both coal and natural gas generation from 1999 levels. Further information on basecase projections of coal and natural gas generation can be found in Documentation of EPA Modeling Applications (V.2.1) Using the Integrated Planning Model, U.S. EPA, March 2002, Chapter 9.

The second attached table provides projected (air pollution control technology) retrofitted capacity by 2010 at a nationwide and regional level. These projected retrofits do not include retrofits projected for the NOx SIP call.

The third table presents the projected coal produced for the power generation sector in 2010. This information is presented at the regional level (Appalachia, Interior, and West) and then subdivided by coal type (bituminous, subbituminous, and lignite) under each region. This coal information is also presented at a regional level for 10 regions.

In addition, with regard to coal, it should be noted that a correction is being made to the graphics on coal provided at the May 13th meeting. In all MACT cases examined, the total tons of western coal was under-reported. In general, overall coal production increases relative to 1999 values, with western coal decreasing only slightly from 1999 levels. The corrected values are provided in the attached bar chart.

Finally, EPA notes that total annual costs could not be examined at the regional level. IPM outputs do not provide costs at a regional level because of the difficulty in assigning transmission costs at the regional level.

Generation (% change from basecase)
Case I - med	Case I - low	Case II - med	Case II - low	Case III - med	Case IV - med
Nationwide
Coal	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4
Oil/Natural Gas	-0.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.2	-0.1
Midwest
Coal	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-1.1
Oil/Natural Gas	-1.7	-0.2	-1.8	-1.9	-1.8	-1.8
Northeast
Coal	0.0	0.1	-0.3	-1.3	-0.3	0.0
Oil/Natural Gas	0.5	0.3	0.5	1.2	0.5	0.5
Texas
Coal	0.4	0.4	-1.5	-0.7	-1.9	0.4
Oil/Natural Gas	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.3	1.0	0.1
Central
Coal	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-0.8	-0.3	-0.3
Oil/Natural Gas	-0.9	-0.3	-0.1	1.7	-0.2	-0.9
South
Coal	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.5	-0.1	0.1
Oil/Natural Gas	-0.6	-0.1	-0.1	1.4	-0.1	-0.6
West
Coal	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	0.0	-0.2	-0.2
Oil/Natural Gas	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.2

Projected Retrofitted Capacity (GW)
Case I - med	Case I - low	Case II - med	Case II - low	Case III - med	Case IV - med
Nationwide
FGD	23	21	22	19	22	23
SCR	4	4	4	3	4	4
SNCR	24	18	20	8	20	24
ACI	195	159	189	145	191	195
Midwest
FGD	10	11	11	9	11	10
SCR	2	2	2	2	2	3
SNCR	0	0	0	0	0	0
ACI	68	55	68	45	68	68
Northeast
FGD	2	2	2	2	2	2
SCR	0	0	0	0	0	0
SNCR	1	1	1	1	1	1
ACI	21	20	21	20	21	21
Texas
FGD	2	2	0	0	0	2
SCR	0	0	0	0	0	0
SNCR	2	2	1	0	1	2
ACI	8	7	4	4	4	7
Central
FGD	2	1	1	0	1	1
SCR	0	0	0	0	0	0
SNCR	9	9	6	0	6	9
ACI	36	31	36	26	36	36
South
FGD	7	5	7	8	7	7
SCR	1	1	1	0	1	1
SNCR	2	1	2	2	2	2
ACI	50	40	50	45	50	50
West
FGD	0	0	0	0	0	0
SCR	0	0	0	0	0	0
SNCR	10	5	10	5	10	10
ACI	12	6	10	4	12	12

Coal Produced for Power Generation Sector (million tons)
Case I - med	Case I - low	Case II - med	Case II - low	Case III - med	Case IV - med
Region	Type	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010
Appalachia	Bituminous	350	339	350	333	350	350
Appalachia Total	350	339	350	333	350	350
Interior	Bituminous	145	131	145	145	145	145
Lignite	60	60	57	59	56	60
Interior Total	205	191	202	204	202	205
West	Bituminous	113	156	113	120	113	113
Lignite	25	25	25	23	25	25
Subbituminous	338	312	337	340	337	338
West Total	475	492	475	484	475	475
Grand Total	1030	1022	1027	1020	1027	1030
Region	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010
N Appalachia	126	121	124	115	124	126
C Appalachia	205	201	208	200	208	206
S Appalachia	18	18	18	18	18	18
Midwest	145	131	145	145	145	145
Gulf	60	60	57	59	56	60
Eastern Northern Plains	25	25	25	23	25	25
Western Northern Plains	315	289	315	317	315	315
Rockies	96	137	96	101	96	96
Southwest	34	37	34	37	34	34
Northwest	5	5	5	5	5	5
Grand Total	1029.97	1022.38	1027.04	1020.16	1026.55	1029.98

Corrected chart from May 13th presentation: