Transportation and Climate
Midterm Evaluation of Light-duty Vehicle GHG Emissions Standards for Model Years 2022-2025
- MTE Schedule
- EPA Technical Projects Underway to Inform the Midterm Evaluation
- EPA Publications Informing the Midterm Evaluation
- EPA Presentations Regarding the Midterm Evaluation
- 60-day Public Comment Period
As part of the rulemaking establishing the model year (MY) 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle GHG standards, EPA made a regulatory commitment to conduct a Midterm Evaluation (MTE) of longer-term standards for MY 2022-2025. EPA is coordinating with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in conducting the MTE.
Through the MTE, EPA will decide whether the standards for model years 2022-2025, established in 2012, are still appropriate given the latest available data and information. EPA’s decision could go one of three ways: the standards remain appropriate, the standards should be less stringent, or the standards should be more stringent. EPA is examining a wide range of factors, such as developments in powertrain technology, vehicle electrification, light-weighting and vehicle safety impacts, the penetration of fuel efficient technologies in the marketplace, consumer acceptance of fuel efficient technologies, trends in fuel prices and the vehicle fleet, employment impacts, and many others.
The MTE will be conducted through a collaborative, data-driven, and transparent process. To gather the most robust data and information to inform the MTE, EPA, in coordination with NHTSA and CARB, is conducting extensive outreach with a wide range of stakeholders – including auto manufacturers, automotive suppliers, NGOs, consumer groups, labor unions, automobile dealers, states, and others.
EPA’s regulations require several formal steps in the MTE process, including several opportunities for public input.
MTE is a 3-step process:
Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR) -- EPA, NHTSA, and CARB have jointly issued a Draft TAR for public comment. The Draft TAR is a technical report, not a decision document, and examines a wide range of issues relevant to the 2022-2025 standards. Public input on the Draft TAR, along with new data and information, will inform EPA’s Proposed Determination.
Highlights of the Draft Technical Assessment Report:
- Automakers are innovating in a time of record sales and fuel economy levels. The results of the Draft TAR show that manufacturers are adopting fuel economy technologies at unprecedented rates. Car makers and suppliers have developed far more innovative technologies to improve fuel economy and reduce GHG emissions than anticipated just a few years ago.
- Our new analysis shows that the standards can be met largely with more efficient gasoline powered cars – we continue to project that only modest penetration of hybrids and only low levels of electric vehicles are needed to meet the standards. The Draft TAR shows that manufacturers can meet the current standards for MY 2022-2025 with conventional gasoline vehicles that use internal combustion engines with well-understood technologies. This is consistent with what the National Academies of Science found in a comprehensive 2015 study. Manufacturers can meet the standards at similar or even lower costs than what was anticipated in the 2012 rulemaking with substantial fuel savings payback to consumers.
- The National Program preserves consumer choice, even as it protects the environment and reduces fuel consumption. The National Program is designed to ensure that consumers can continue to buy the differing types of vehicles they need, from compact cars, to SUVs, to larger trucks suitable for towing and carrying heavy loads. Owners of every type of new vehicle will enjoy gasoline savings and improved fuel economy with a reduced environmental footprint.
Executive Summary -- Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 – Executive Summary (PDF) (15 pp, 588K, EPA-420-D-16-901, July 2016)
Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 (PDF) (1217 pp, 36.5MB, EPA-420-D-16-900, July 2016)
Appendices -- Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 (PDF) (118 pp, 5.6MB, EPA-420-D-16-900app, July 2016)
For additional documents supporting EPA’s analyses for the Draft Technical Assessment Report, see the Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) Tool and the Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) pages.
60-day Comment Period – For information regarding the comment period and how to submit comments on the Draft TAR, please see the Federal Register Notice announcing the 60-day comment period (PDF) (16 pp, 73 K, pre-publication, signed July 15, 2016).
Correction: The FR Notice includes an incorrect Website reference for the California Air Resources Board (CARB) under ADDRESSES. Since CARB is a joint author on the Draft Technical Assessment Report, the agencies are requesting that commenters, in addition to submitting comments to the EPA and/or NHTSA docket, also submit their comments directly to CARB at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/leviii/2016tar.htm
Proposed Determination – The Proposed Determination will be the EPA Administrator’s proposal on whether the 2022-2025 standards are appropriate under section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. The Proposed Determination will be available for public comment, as required by EPA’s regulations. If the Administrator’s proposal is that the standards should change (either more or less stringent), then this action will be a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), jointly with NHTSA’s CAFE NPRM. Public input on the Proposed Determination, as well as new data and information available, will inform EPA’s Final Determination.
Final Determination –The Final Determination will be the Administrator’s final decision on whether or not the 2022-2025 standards are appropriate, in light of the record then before the Administrator. Under EPA’s regulations, the Final Determination is required no later than April 1, 2018. If the EPA determination is that the standards will not change, NHTSA will issue its CAFE final rule concurrently with the EPA Final Determination (77 FR 62652, October 15, 2012). If the EPA determination is that the standards will change, the agencies will issue a joint final rule, which could be by April 2018 or a later date. At the very latest, the agencies will complete the final rulemaking in sufficient time to promulgate final standards for MY 2022-2025 with at least 18 months lead time, but additional lead time may be provided (77 FR 62785, October 15, 2012).
EPA Technical Projects Underway to Inform the Midterm Evaluation
- Through the National Center for Advanced Technology (NCAT) located at EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory (NVFEL) in Ann Arbor, Michigan, we are researching future advanced engine and transmission technologies to support modeling, advanced technology testing, and demonstrations
- This new study examines the mass reduction potential for a full size light duty pickup truck.
- Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis—Light-Duty Pickup Truck Model Years 2020-2025 (PDF) (1018 pp, 54.9MB, EPA-420-R-15-006, June 2015)
- CAE Baseline and Lightweight Models (ZIP) (67.2MB, June 2015)
- Continued state-of-the-art cost teardown studies, with FEV, for fuel efficient technologies, including mild hybrids and diesel vehicles
- Research on consumer issues, including an assessment of vehicle affordability, a study of willingness-to-pay for various vehicle attributes, and content analysis of auto reviews
- Searching for Hidden Costs: A Technology-Based Approach to the Energy Efficiency Gap in Light-Duty Vehicles (PDF) (55 pp, 1.0 MB, EPA-420-D-15-010, November 2015)
- Searching for Hidden Costs: Presentation made at the University of Michigan Energy Institute’s Conference on Transportation, Economics, Energy, and the Environment (TE3) (PDF) (23 pp, 490K, October 30, 2015)
- Searching for Hidden Costs: A Technology-Based Approach to the Energy Efficiency Gap in Light-Duty Vehicles, Presentation made at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Annual Conference (PDF) (34 pp, 648K, June 2015)
- Continued work on economic issues, including a new study on VMT rebound
- The Rebound Effect from Fuel Efficiency Standards: Measurement and Projection to 2035 (PDF) (80 pp, 629KB, EPA-420-R-15-012, June 2015 ) and Peer Review (PDF) (193 pp, 2.9MB, EPA-420-R-15-013, June 2015)
- Continued development of modeling tools:
- Vehicle simulation modeling (ALPHA - Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis)
- Technology feasibility and cost model (OMEGA - Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles)
- Technology packages efficiencies (Lumped Parameter Model)
- Continued investigation into potential consumer choice modeling
- Testing a Model of Consumer Vehicle Purchases (PDF) (42 pp, 883 K, EPA-420-D-15-011, December 2015)
- In addition to working with CARB and NHTSA, EPA is collaborating with DOE on projects involving vehicle light-weighting and battery cost modeling, and Environment and Climate Change Canada/Transport Canada on projects involving aerodynamics, vehicle light-weighting, all-wheel drive vehicles, and other areas.
In addition to these projects supporting the MTE, EPA issues two annual reports related to light-duty GHG emissions:
- - Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide, and Fuel Economy Trends Report details real-world fuel economy and tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions levels for new cars and light trucks since 1975.
- Light-Duty GHG Manufacturer Performance Report details automaker’s compliance with the GHG standards.
EPA Publications Informing the Midterm Evaluation
NOTE: You will need Adobe Acrobat Reader, available as a free download, to view some of the files on this page. See EPA's PDF page to learn more about PDF, and for a link to the free Acrobat Reader.
Throughout the MTE process, EPA’s goal is to publish as much of our research as possible in peer-reviewed journals. EPA staff have published the following peer-reviewed papers so far since 2013.
- "Air Flow Optimization and Calibration in High-Compression-Ratio Naturally Aspirated SI Engines with Cooled-EGR," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-0565, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-0565, Lee, S., Schenk, C., and McDonald, J. (PDF) (10 pp, 997K, May 4, 2016)
- "Fuel Efficiency Mapping of a 2014 6-Cylinder GM EcoTec 4.3L Engine with Cylinder Deactivation," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-0662, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-0662, Stuhldreher, M. (PDF) (7 pp, 919K, May 4, 2016)
- "Estimating GHG Reduction from Combinations of Current Best-Available and Future Powertrain and Vehicle Technologies for a Midsized Car Using EPA’s ALPHA Model," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-0910, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-0910, Kargul, J., Moskalik, A., Barba, D., Newman, K., and Dekraker, P. (PDF) (16 pp, 1.0MB, May 4, 2016)
- "Benchmarking and Hardware-in-the-Loop Operation of a 2014 MAZDA SkyActiv 2.0L 13:1 Compression Ratio Engine," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-1007, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-1007, Ellies, B., Schenk, C., and Dekraker, P. (PDF) (8 pp, 782K, May 4, 2016)
- "Modeling of a Conventional Mid-Size Car with CVT Using ALPHA and Comparable Powertrain Technologies," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-1141, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-1141, Newman, K., Doorlag, M., and Barba, D. (PDF) (13 pp, 1.0MB, May 4, 2016)
- "Investigating the Effect of Advanced Automatic Transmissions on Fuel Consumption Using Vehicle Testing and Modeling," SAE Int. J. Engines 9(3):2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-1142, Moskalik, A., Hula, A., Barba, D., and Kargul, J. (PDF) (13 pp, 1.0MB, May 4, 2016)
- "Modeling the Effects of Transmission Gear Count, Ratio Progression, and Final Drive Ratio on Fuel Economy and Performance Using ALPHA," SAE Technical Paper 2016-01-1143, 2016, doi:10.4271/2016-01-1143, Newman, K. and Dekraker, P. (PDF) (16 pp, 2.0MB, May 6, 2016)
- “Cost-Effectiveness of a Lightweight Design for 2020-2025: An Assessment of a Light-Duty Pickup Truck,” SAE 2015-01-0559, Cheryl Caffrey, Kevin Bolon, Greg Kolwich, Robert Johnston, Tim Shaw (PDF) (19 pp, 3.0MB, May 7, 2015)
- “Downsized Boosted Engine Benchmarking Method and Results,” SAE 2015-01-1266, Mark Stuhldreher, Charles Schenk, Jessica Brakora, David Hawkins, Andrew Moskalik, and Paul Dekraker (PDF) (7 pp, 481K, June 11, 2015)
- “Vehicle Component Benchmarking Using a Chassis Dynamometer,” SAE Int. J. Mater. Manf. 8(3):2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-0589, Moskalik, A., Dekraker, P., Kargul, J., and Barba, D. (PDF) (19 pp, 3.0MB, May 7, 2015)
- “Development and Testing of an Automatic Transmission Shift Schedule Algorithm for Vehicle Simulation,” SAE Int. J. Engines 8(3):2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-1142, Newman, K., Kargul, J., and Barba, D. (PDF) (11 pp, 1.0MB, March 11, 2015)
- “Benchmarking and Modeling of a Conventional Mid-Size Car Using ALPHA," SAE Technical Paper 2015-01-1140, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-1140, Newman, K., Kargul, J., and Barba, D. (PDF) (12 pp, 1.0MB, March 26, 2015)
- “The Energy Efficiency Gap in EPA’s Benefit-Cost Analysis of Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Regulations: A Case Study,” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 2014, Gloria Helfand and Reid Dorsey-Palmateer
- “Analysis of Technology Adoption Rates in New Vehicles,” SAE 2014-01-0781, Aaron Hula., Alson, J., Bunker, A., Bolon, K. (PDF) (6 pp, 435K, April 14, 2014)
- “HIL Development and Validation of Lithium Ion Battery Packs,” SAE 2014-01-1863, Soduk Lee, Cherry, J., Lee, B., McDonald, J., Safoutin, M.
- "Developing the AC17 Efficiency Test for Mobile Air Conditioners," SAE 2013-01-0569, Fred Sciance, Brian Nelson, Mahmoud Yassine, Angelo Patti, Leela Rao
- "Maneuver-based Battery-in-the-Loop Testing - Bringing Reality to the Lab," SAE 2013-01-0157, Oguz H. Dagci, Nicolas Pereira, Jeff Cherry
- "Development of Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis Tool," SAE 2013-01-0808, Byungho Lee, SoDuk Lee, Jeff Cherry, Anthony Neam, James Sanchez, Ed Nam
- “Modeling and Validation of Power-Split and P2 Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicles,” SAE 2013-01-1470, SoDuk Lee, Byungho Lee, Joseph McDonald, L. James Sanchez, Edward Nam
- "Modeling and Validation of Lithium-Ion Automotive Battery Packs," SAE 2013-01-1539, SoDuk Lee, Byungho Lee, Joseph McDonald, Edward Nam
- "Cost-Effectiveness of a Lightweight Design for 2017-2020: An Assessment of a Midsize Crossover Utility Vehicle," SAE 2013-01-0656, Cheryl Caffrey, Kevin Bolon, Hugh Harris, Greg Kolwich, Robert Johnston, Tim Shaw
EPA staff are attending numerous technical conferences, and keeping abreast of hundreds of papers in the literature on the wide range of factors we’re considering for the MTE.
EPA Presentations Regarding the Midterm Evaluation
EPA also has publicly presented information about our work in numerous forums (selected presentations below):
- “Modeling Methodology for EPA GHG Analysis,” presented at the joint NHTSA-EPA-CARB Workshop on Technology Effectiveness Modeling Methodologies, March 1, 2016. (PDF) (54 pp, 6.36MB)
- “ALPHA Effectiveness Modeling: Current and Future Light-Duty Vehicle & Powertrain Technologies,” January 20, 2016.(PDF) (19 pp, 1.67MB)
- “Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards: 2025 and Beyond” presented to the SAE North American International Powertrain Conference, September 17, 2015 (PDF) (26 pp, 1.0MB)
- “Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards” presented to the Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminar, August 4, 2015 (PDF) (21 pp, 1.0MB)
- “EPA’s Light-Duty Vehicle Emissions Control Programs” presented to the SAE Light-duty Emission Control Symposium, December 10, 2014.(PDF) (35 pp, 2.0MB)
- “Silverado 1500 Mass-Reduction and Cost Analysis Project Review” presented to the National Research Council of the National Academies Committee on Light-Duty Fuel Economy Technologies, September 4, 2014. (PDF) (24 pp, 961K)
- “Midterm Evaluation Technologies and Costs” presented to the National Research Council of the National Academies Committee on Light-Duty Fuel Economy Technologies, July 31, 2014. (PDF) (121 pp, 9.0MB)
- “Status of EPA’s Technology Assessment for the Midterm Evaluation” presented to the National Research Council of the National Academies Committee on Light-Duty Fuel Economy Technologies, June 23, 2014. (PDF) (41 pp, 3.0MB)