Climate Change Indicators in the United States
Data source: Compilation of 10 underlying datasets 5
Data source: Compilation of five underlying datasets 6
Data source: Compilation of six underlying datasets 7
- Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and certain manufactured greenhouse gases have all risen significantly over the last few hundred years (see Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4).
- Historical measurements show that the current global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are unprecedented compared with the past 800,000 years (see Figures 1, 2, and 3).
- Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased steadily since the beginning of the industrial era, rising from an annual average of 280 ppm in the late 1700s to 401 ppm at Mauna Loa in 2015—a 43 percent increase (see Figure 1). Almost all of this increase is due to human activities. 1
- The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled since preindustrial times, reaching approximately 1,800 ppb in recent years (see the range of measurements for 2013 and 2014 in Figure 2). This increase is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. 2
- Over the past 800,000 years, concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere rarely exceeded 280 ppb. Levels have risen since the 1920s, however, reaching a new high of 327 ppb in 2014 (average of three sites in Figure 3). This increase is primarily due to agriculture. 3
- Concentrations of many of the halogenated gases shown in Figure 4 were essentially zero a few decades ago but have increased rapidly as they have been incorporated into industrial products and processes. Some of these chemicals have been or are currently being phased out of use because they are ozone-depleting substances, meaning they also cause harm to the Earth’s protective ozone layer. As a result, concentrations of many major ozone-depleting gases have begun to stabilize or decline (see Figure 4, left panel). Concentrations of other halogenated gases have continued to rise, however, especially where the gases have emerged as substitutes for ozone-depleting chemicals (see Figure 4, right panel).
- Overall, the total amount of ozone in the atmosphere decreased by about 3 percent between 1979 and 2013 (see Figure 5). All of the decrease happened in the stratosphere, with most of the decrease occurring between 1979 and 1994. Changes in stratospheric ozone reflect the effect of ozone-depleting substances. These chemicals have been released into the air for many years, but recently, international efforts have reduced emissions and phased out their use.
- Globally, the amount of ozone in the troposphere increased by about 4 percent between 1979 and 2013 (see Figure 5).
Since the Industrial Revolution began in the late 1700s, people have added a significant amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, and conducting other activities (see the U.S. and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions indicators). When greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, many remain there for long time periods ranging from a decade to many millennia. Over time, these gases are removed from the atmosphere by chemical reactions or by emissions sinks, such as the oceans and vegetation, which absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. However, as a result of human activities, these gases are entering the atmosphere more quickly than they are being removed, and thus their concentrations are increasing.
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and certain manufactured gases called halogenated gases (gases that contain chlorine, fluorine, or bromine) become well mixed throughout the global atmosphere because of their relatively long lifetimes and because of transport by winds. Concentrations of these greenhouse gases are measured in parts per million (ppm), parts per billion (ppb), or parts per trillion (ppt) by volume. In other words, a concentration of 1 ppb for a given gas means there is one molecule of that gas in every 1 billion molecules of air. Some halogenated gases are considered major greenhouse gases due to their very high global warming potentials and long atmospheric lifetimes even if they only exist at a few ppt (see table).
Ozone is also a greenhouse gas, but it differs from other greenhouse gases in several ways. The effects of ozone depend on its altitude, or where the gas is located vertically in the atmosphere. Most ozone naturally exists in the layer of the atmosphere called the stratosphere, which ranges from approximately 6 to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface. Ozone in the stratosphere has a slight net warming effect on the planet, but it is good for life on Earth because it absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun, preventing it from reaching the Earth’s surface. In the troposphere—the layer of the atmosphere near ground level—ozone is an air pollutant that is harmful to breathe, a main ingredient of urban smog, and an important greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change (see the Climate Forcing indicator). Unlike the other major greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone only lasts for days to weeks, so levels often vary by location and by season.
About the Indicator
This indicator describes concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It focuses on the major greenhouse gases that result from human activities.
For carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halogenated gases, recent measurements come from monitoring stations around the world, while measurements of older air come from air bubbles trapped in layers of ice from Antarctica and Greenland. By determining the age of the ice layers and the concentrations of gases trapped inside, scientists can learn what the atmosphere was like thousands of years ago.
This indicator also shows data from satellite instruments that measure ozone density in the troposphere, the stratosphere, and the “total column,” or all layers of the atmosphere. These satellite data are routinely compared with ground-based instruments to confirm their accuracy. Ozone data have been averaged worldwide for each year to smooth out the regional and seasonal variations.
This indicator includes several of the most important halogenated gases, but some others are not shown. Many other halogenated gases are also greenhouse gases, but Figure 4 is limited to a set of common examples that represent most of the major types of these gases. The indicator also does not address certain other pollutants that can affect climate by either reflecting or absorbing energy. For example, sulfate particles can reflect sunlight away from the Earth, while black carbon aerosols (soot) absorb energy. Data for nitrogen trifluoride (Figure 4) reflect modeled averages based on measurements made in the Northern Hemisphere and some locations in the Southern Hemisphere, to represent global average concentrations over time. The global averages for ozone only cover the area between 50°N and 50°S latitude (77 percent of the Earth’s surface), because at higher latitudes the lack of sunlight in winter creates data gaps and the angle of incoming sunlight during the rest of the year reduces the accuracy of the satellite measuring technique.
Global atmospheric concentration measurements for carbon dioxide (Figure 1), methane (Figure 2), and nitrous oxide (Figure 3) come from a variety of monitoring programs and studies published in peer-reviewed literature. Global atmospheric concentration data for selected halogenated gases (Figure 4) were compiled by the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and a peer-reviewed study on nitrogen trifluoride. A similar figure with many of these gases appears in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. 14 Satellite measurements of ozone were processed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and validated using ground-based measurements collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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